Population Modeling
Broward County's ability to plan accurately for capital facilities and service provision requires reliable population forecasts. Because of the fast-paced growth of Broward County, having a model specific to Broward County is important for accurate population projections. The Broward County Population Forecasting Model (Model), developed by the Planning Services Division (PSD), was approved by the State of Florida's Department of Community Affairs as part of the adoption of the Broward County Comprehensive Plan in 1989.
The Model provides details about Broward County's expected population. Age, gender, race, and Hispanic origin characteristics are forecast for 1-year intervals extending to 2030. With the assistance of municipal partners in the Broward County Population Forecasting Roundtable, these projections are assigned to Broward County's 31 municipalities, 279 census tracts and 902 traffic analysis zones.
The Model uses the cohort-survival method to project future population and housing units, and is based on the concept that future population equals the present population plus natural increase and net migration. Natural increase equals the difference between the number of births and deaths each year. Net Migration equals the number of people moving into the County less those moving out each year. Net migration includes both domestic and international migration.
Output from this model is used by many County agencies, as well as the School Board of Broward County, the South Florida Water Management District, the Metropolitan Planning Organization, and the Broward Sheriff's Office. These agencies use projections to estimate the existing level of service demand and project facilities and programs to meet future service demand.
The model covers a thirty year forecast period beginning with the most recent census year (2000). An annual update of the model allows for calibration of the model in response to changing demographic trends between the census years. These updates are shown below.
For further information on the Model, please go to:
Countywide Projections:
Municipal and Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Allocations:
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